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October 30, 2005

Competing on Analytics

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Posted by Britton

Ready for the next stage in the evolution of business? Tom Davenport, director of research at Babson College and author of the new book Thinking for a Living, contends it is "competing on analytics" (COA). This is the point when data- and fact-based decisions become the primary basis of competition. right

Speaking last week at the Better Management Live conference in Las Vegas, Davenport explained that analytics enable "the optimization of key business processes" -- whether in the realm of human resources, supply chains or customer relationships. As Davenport's research suggests, such moves are proving to be a key element of competitive differentiation and market growth.

In a study of 32 enterprises, Davenport found multiple organizations that are competing on analytics at this point. Among them: Marriott; Walmart; Mars; Dell; Procter & Gamble; Progressive Insurance; Harrah's; Gallo; Capital One; Amazon.com; Yahoo; Google; and Verizon. He also mentions sports teams -- such as the Oakland A's, Boston Red Sox and the New England Patriots -- that are thriving on statistical modeling and analysis. This suggests that analytical leadership has the potential to transform all industries and fields of endeavor in the coming years.

Davenport offers five stages of development in this regard:

Stage 5: Clearly competing on analytics (11 of 32) ;
Stage 4: Clear intent and almost there (6 of 32);
Stage 3: Have vision, but a long way to go (7 of 32);
Stage 2: Some local, non-strategic analytical activity (6 of 32);
Stage 1: Still wrestling with the basics (2 of 32).

Finally, Davenport offers some key factors associated with competing on analytics. He points to the importance of gaining senior management commitment, engaging in sophisticated analytics (such as predictive modeling) and being able to manage business intelligence at an enterprise level.

Harrah's, whose CEO has led the charge in this direction, is a triumphant exemplar of the approach. Indeed, the gaming giant is presently working on an initiative called "Project Moonshot" that would enable it to leverage cross-property intelligence to engage in real-time service interventions. Lose a bundle on the slots or at the craps table? You can expect an attractive host or hostess (who has just been flagged electronically) to step up beside you at the moment of disappointment and offer you a gift that reflects your personal preferences -- whether it's a spa day, a golf outing or tickets to Cirque Du Soleil. Now, every loyal and profitable customer -- who happens to be carrying a trackable "Total Rewards" card -- can feel like a high roller. Welcome to the future.

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October 28, 2005

Swan Song

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Posted by Britton

You heard it here first folks (see "Roaches and Reptiles" -- written last November). After watching the PBS Frontline documentary The Persuaders (written by media theorist Doug Rushkoff), I predicted that this strange airline would soon crash and burn. Here's the story:

Delta to Eliminate Discount Carrier Song

Oct 28 10:05 AM US/Eastern

AP -- Delta Air Lines Inc., which is reorganizing under protection from the federal bankruptcy court, announced plans Friday to discontinue its discount carrier Song by May 2006 and incorporate Song's fleet into Delta's regular service. In the interim, Delta plans to include first-class service on Song's 48 planes in an attempt to make the flights more attractive to business travelers and to conform with Delta's regular service. "As Delta continues its transformation to become a more customer- focused airline, we are incorporating the best of Song into the best of Delta," said Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein in a statement. "Our new Song service will set the standard in transcontinental travel, making Delta the first choice for customers on these routes." The financially-strapped parent company also plans to convert an additional 50-plus Delta aircraft to two-class Song service and expand in-flight entertainment on Song flights. Joanne Smith, currently president of Song, has been named vice president of consumer maketing for Delta, effective immediately. Atlanta-based Delta filed for Chapter 11 bankrupcy protection from creditors in New York on Sept. 14.

Whatever the jibberish about "incorporating the best of Song into the best of Delta," this is clearly a failed experiment. The question is: What does this experiment teach us? In my opinion, it teaches us that companies cannot rely on Madison avenue to create a corporate vision. That's what seems to have happened here. We're not talking about image problems; we are talking about "the vision thing." Song never had it. And it's not something you can just outsource to "mystical branding gurus."

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October 23, 2005

For Whom the Boom Tolls

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Posted by Britton

Fascinating article last week in the New York Times Magazine about the building industry and boom through the eyes of Horsham, Penn.-based Toll Brothers -- one of the giants in the business. Money quote: "We're really a marketing company that happens to build houses." right

They even seem to resemble Dell Computer in many ways. They don't actually build anything. Physical work is subcontracted to electrical, framing, roofing, painting, masonry and plumbing companies. They don't start construction until contracts are signed and deposits are in the bank. The company also follows the "mass customization" (they prefer to call it "semi custom") principles that have made Dell so successful and profitable. Indeed, they ran the numbers back in the mid-1980s and learned that they could be much more profitable and meet 98% of customer demands by radically limiting custom options. Construction errors, delays and costs were often generated by the option process. "The more options we sold," said CFO Joel Rassman, "the less we made."

On the customer intelligence front, it seems that the insight that matters most is related to the preferences of prospective buyers in various regions and socio-economic groups -- whether it's for "stately Colonials" or "Mediterranean-style ranches." (Tolls Brothers -- which competes with other large, national builders such as Pulte, Lennar, Centex Homes, D. R. Horton and KB Home -- skews to the high end of the market). Competitive intelligence is also critical to ensure that the company is incorporating the features that other developers are having success selling. Jed Gibson, a vice president who runs Toll's architecture division, explains, "Our business model is: what's selling out there, and how can we do it better?"

Founder Bob Toll spends much of his time poring over data related to various potential property purchases. At this point, there are roughly 74 million owner-occupied homes in America. But Toll and others believe we actually may be running out of desirable land for development as today's exurbs get built out and push us farther from city centers and workplaces. Extensive building regulations, meanwhile, add costs that smaller developers can't afford to assume. The ability of big builders to understand these regulations, bear these costs and fight the fights associated with new development further strengthen their hand.

Indeed, Toll Brothers is not convinced that the boom will ever end as far as it is concerned. While it expects the market to cool down and crush some overexuberant investors, it sees 15% growth as far as the eye can see. "Why can't real estate just have a boom like every other industry?" Toll asks rhetorically. "Why do we have to have a bubble and then a pop?"

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